Friday showed how VIX, and the complacency the market had felt, was far from true; instead, a pent up consolidation continued to erupt.
The market hit theoretical Dow lows Friday of 9797, only to close at 10,012, or 10,042 on the theoretical. For months Floyd has provided projections, and discussed what is called a Fibonnacci retracement. This ancient mathematician used his numerology analysis to predict that from the "lowest low" of something it will rise 38 and then 63%. The market did just that and we predicted hesitancy and confusion at 10,746. We've been doing so for months. As the market reached this, and a slight step above it, we began to see the faltering. Fibonnaci and chartists typically see a 10 to 20% pullback from the new 63% highest high. This would put the Dow at 9671. Friday we came very close to this bottom before ending the day above the, psychologically important, 10,000 mark.
Pay very careful attention to our new Dow projections. Many of our traders have made great bucks this last week just following support/resistance lines and our Dow projections.
So, what's next? Was this a good and healthy consolidation from a market that moved up too quickly, or is this the U.S. economy being noted globally for not having the resiliency or strength, and that our debt will overtake us?
Being one what trusts and believes almost nothing, I make note that the arctic ice melt is to cost 2.4 trillion. Of course many with IQ'x of 40 or more actually believe there is no global warming.
These were the folks that voted for Bush the second time :)
If the arctic ice melt can cost 2.4 trillion, where does this come from. If the Euro is now losing value, the USD gaining value, and Gold and Oil losing value, what do you make of it?
I know oil will run from 60.00 to 100.00 a barrel, and run in cycles.
I know the USD is really worthless shit, completely made up of debt and promises
I know that the Euro will not make it over the long run, and discussions of world currency will circulate again..
I know these things as opinions, of course, that you are paying for as you project the market short term. So, here is what I know about a 10 vs. a 20% correction. If the market continues to correct, and passes below 9500 we suggest that the country will be ripe for another, even larger stimulus plan, increasing our debt further, and that Congress will pass it. This will occur as we hit 20% lows.
If the market holds near where we bottomed on Friday and holds steady, or shows slight increases, then 2010 will continue in the same slight whipsaw, light increase, decrease, and a lucky year end of 2-5% above prior year, if we're lucky.
It's a trying time. We will lead with a call, on the optimistic side that we may now trigger a short term upside, but pay attention to futures carefully. We think the Friday upside reversal may give way to an oversold bounce.
However, if one reviews the NYSE Bullish Percent Index it's easy to see how my comments above show a turbulent year and no quick recoveries.
Floyd,
You are incredible!! I can't believe the signals you have put out in the 3 weeks I have been trading, not to mention the by product of learning a great deal. The May 640 calls – another huge winner!
Thanks for your help!
~RC
"Floyd, got the 620 and returned over 100% in two days. Incredible."-
~
Jerry W, NYC
Just got my fill at 2.45 on the 655 Calls bought at 1.70 - Nice 44% profit. I calculated my sell price using the pivot point and it worked perfectly.
~
DW, Australia
I have benefited greatly using the information in your website and market alerts. My trading account has grown by a factor of 50 since first finding OEX Options last year! Now, I can afford to take some time off and enjoy some other aspects of life. I will continue to recommend your service to
anyone seriously interested in achieving similar results to mine.
~RC
Floyd, you are remarkable----Thanks! Hope you have a nice dinner and good evening. Have you had your physical lately? How's your blood pressure and cholesterol? Are you walking daily?
Just Kidding
Love Ya
~SD
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